i don't think we will win the league

Originally Posted by marlo

you do know what once a season is over the chances of winning the league the next become the same as if we havent won it for 5 years.

i agree. would we have a better chance of winning the league if hypothetically we didn't win the league in 06/07 and were now going for three in a row?


i think it's still ours to lose, provided certain players step up to the mark.
if chelsea had kept hold of hiddink they would be clear favourites in my eyes.
i don't think liverpool can replicate last season, that was their best shot and they blew it.
i think arsenal might stay closer in touch this time around.

for what its worth, i can see the winning points total being the lowest it has been for some time. 80-ish points might be enough.

anyone who says they won't be too bothered if we don't win the league is only kidding themselves.

Originally Posted by Sloane

are there only 8 teams this year?

Do you think i am going to attempt to predict what order the utter shit that makes up the rest of the division is going to finish in...

Feel free to do so if you wish...

Look, with 5 games to go we'll be in with a chance of winning the league. Let's see shall we.

Originally Posted by MUFC One Love

City won't get in the top 6 this season.

If Villa sign 1-2 other good players along with Delph they'll do well, there is talk Villa want Sneijder.

Spurs will do better than usual 'cos Harry Redknapp will make them hard to beat.

not sure about villa now downing is out for a while and hes hardly progressed as he should. if young and agbonlahor can be more consistent it will help maybe with more competition for places they might. delph is young and obviously unproven at that level, im sure they will sign a couple of others though. cant see them affording wesleys wages

spurs havent improved their defence which is always there problem and have injuries. if huddlestone has lost 3 stone they might do alright

statistically it's not really the same chance.

winning the league 4 years on the trot has never ever been done

the first team to go a whole season undefeated was only recently

the most points in a season was only recently

the most successive wins is less than 20 and so on

Plus youre talking about being the best side over 4 consecutive series' of 38 matches. this clearly requires a greater level of consistency than doing it over three series' or two, or just one. therefore the chances of it happening are less.

the argument that it's a one off league and not connected to the other three is very weak, not least because most of the opponents will be the same. are the chances of winning any particular match the same each time? reality tells us that they are not. evidence of statistics tell us that they are not.

I think the league is pretty difficult to call this season and we're in with as good a shout as anyone.

Originally Posted by Sloane

people said that about ruud when he left, but other people stepped up and we played better football as a result and won the league

We had clear evidence of what we could do without Ruud though, based on our excellent performances in the second half of 05/06; we really don't know how this team will work without Ronaldo. Taking the man who has been directly responsible, through his goals and assists, for around 38% of our (league) goals over the past three seasons out of the team, with little or no prior evidence of how we'll perform without him, is at the very least a bit of a step into the unknown.

Originally Posted by Tumescent Throb

statistically it's not really the same chance.

winning the league 4 years on the trot has never ever been done

the first team to go a whole season undefeated was only recently

the most points in a season was only recently

the most successive wins is less than 20 and so on

this clearly requires a greater level of consistency than doing it over three series' or two, or just one. therefore the chances of it happening are less.

the argument that it's a one off league and not connected to the other three is very weak, not least because most of the opponents will be the same. are the chances of winning any particular match the same each time? reality tells us that they are not. evidence of statistics tell us that they are not.

the only argument that backs up the saying regarding 4 in a row being difficult is that it may affect the players mentally.

Plus youre talking about being the best side over 4 consecutive series' of 38 matches.

no we are not.
we are talking about a one off season (next season)
what happen last season is irrelevant to the next.

or do you believe each club should win the league on average once every 19/20 years?

Originally Posted by Coracao

Do you think i am going to attempt to predict what order the utter shit that makes up the rest of the division is going to finish in...

Feel free to do so if you wish...

1. united
2. chelsea
3. arsenal
4. liverpool
5. city
6. villa
7. everton
8. spurs
9. west ham
10. sunderland
11. fulham
12. blackburn
13. bolton
14. stoke
15. birminham
16. wigan
17. hull
18. wolves
19. burnley
20. portsmouth

there you go

Originally Posted by Serenity Now

We had clear evidence of what we could do without Ruud though, based on our excellent performances in the second half of 05/06; we really don't know how this team will work without Ronaldo. Taking the man who has been directly responsible, through his goals and assists, for around 38% of our (league) goals over the past three seasons out of the team, with little or no prior evidence of how we'll perform without him, is at the very least a bit of a step into the unknown.

I knew you wouldn't be able to avoid posting in a thread where statistics were mentioned

Originally Posted by Coracao

I knew you wouldn't be able to avoid posting in a thread where statistics were mentioned

I fully expect him to post some stats about this that have come from 'France Football' or something

Originally Posted by Serenity Now

We had clear evidence of what we could do without Ruud though, based on our excellent performances in the second half of 05/06; we really don't know how this team will work without Ronaldo. Taking the man who has been directly responsible, through his goals and assists, for around 38% of our (league) goals over the past three seasons out of the team, with little or no prior evidence of how we'll perform without him, is at the very least a bit of a step into the unknown.

Well, adds a certain nervous excitement to the new season i suppose.

Originally Posted by Sloane

1. united
2. chelsea
3. arsenal
4. liverpool
5. city
6. villa
7. everton
8. spurs
9. west ham
10. sunderland
11. fulham
12. blackburn
13. bolton
14. stoke
15. birminham
16. wigan
17. hull
18. wolves
19. burnley
20. portsmouth

there you go

Hull to go down for me. Unsure on Portsmouth.

There is an awful lot of shit in the bottom half of that table.

Originally Posted by Serenity Now

We had clear evidence of what we could do without Ruud though, based on our excellent performances in the second half of 05/06; we really don't know how this team will work without Ronaldo. Taking the man who has been directly responsible, through his goals and assists, for around 38% of our (league) goals over the past three seasons out of the team, with little or no prior evidence of how we'll perform without him, is at the very least a bit of a step into the unknown.

fair point, im positive he still started roughly half the games and was on as a sub in the others after the carling cup final

Originally Posted by marlo

the only argument that backs up the saying regarding 4 in a row being difficult is that it may affect the players mentally.

no we are not.
we are talking about a one off season (next season)
what happen last season is irrelevant to the next.

or do you believe each club should win the league on average once every 19/20 years?

mentally, physically, tribally, historically, statistically - all the fixtures in the league have their own sub-plot.

your last point is a bit daft really and actually defeats the rest of your position.

Originally Posted by Serenity Now

We had clear evidence of what we could do without Ruud though, based on our excellent performances in the second half of 05/06; we really don't know how this team will work without Ronaldo. Taking the man who has been directly responsible, through his goals and assists, for around 38% of our (league) goals over the past three seasons out of the team, with little or no prior evidence of how we'll perform without him, is at the very least a bit of a step into the unknown.

all true, he was a demon, especially at getting the breakthrough against the fodder. we do have some evidence of free-flowing and winning football without him in the starting line-up though, which is encouraging.

also it's important to remember that we will still be using XI players

the key factor during this season may well be a psychological one as well, namely the absence of Ronaldo could be our twelth man. the crowd will be needed more and we could get right into a seige mentality if things don't go smoothly at any point, the players will be desperate to prove that they aren't nothing without him etc

Originally Posted by Tumescent Throb

all true, he was a demon, especially at getting the breakthrough against the fodder. we do have some evidence of free-flowing and winning football without him in the starting line-up though, which is encouraging.

also it's important to remember that we will still be using XI players

the key factor during this season may well be a psychological one as well, namely the absence of Ronaldo could be our twelth man. the crowd will be needed more and we could get right into a seige mentality if things don't go smoothly at any point, the players will be desperate to prove that they aren't nothing without him etc

We're £#%&!ed then!

Originally Posted by Jizza Jazza

He's actually right on that. Statistically it's the same chance each year.

I could accept us not winning it this year, as long as it's not the dippers in the number one slot and as long as utd finish second so I can claim my fifty

Fwiw, I think we will win it this year. I think we'll surprise everyone with this squad.

there are so many intangible variables to consider over and above that

the mental and physical drain on these players over the last 3 years could take its toll, its very hard to maintain that, we might get very unlicky with injuries or key players losing form

my point is that to expect to win 4 on the bounce is insane, statistically or not

people said that about ruud when he left, but other people stepped up and we played better football as a result and won the league

This a lot different though. From the end of the previous season it was obvious we were a better team with Saha spearheading the attack. We were more dynamic and unpredictable.

Last season we were not as fluent in attack. But the team wasn't as geared to Ronaldo as it was before, he was pushed wider to accommodate Berbatov presumably. We've also lost one of our greatest threats from corners. Teams don't have to plan for Ronaldo anymore so it might be easier for them to plan for Rooney now.

And its not just Ronaldo. Rio's increasing injury problems are a worry. As is Scholes' decline. They, along with Ronaldo and Rooney were absolutely key to our side.

all true, he was a demon, especially at getting the breakthrough against the fodder. we do have some evidence of free-flowing and winning football without him in the starting line-up though, which is encouraging.

FA cup Arsenal 07/08?

Originally Posted by Tumescent Throb

statistically it's not really the same chance.

winning the league 4 years on the trot has never ever been done

the first team to go a whole season undefeated was only recently

the most points in a season was only recently

the most successive wins is less than 20 and so on

Plus youre talking about being the best side over 4 consecutive series' of 38 matches. this clearly requires a greater level of consistency than doing it over three series' or two, or just one. therefore the chances of it happening are less.

the argument that it's a one off league and not connected to the other three is very weak, not least because most of the opponents will be the same. are the chances of winning any particular match the same each time? reality tells us that they are not. evidence of statistics tell us that they are not.

No, no, no, no, no, and no. And thrice again no.

You claim that "statistically" it's not the same chance, then give 'evidence' to support this which seems to come from the standpoint that United have not already won 3 in a row (i.e. 'this clearly requires a greater level of consistency than doing it over three series or two, or just one). United only have to do it once now. It's not that the seasons aren't 'connected,' it's that the first three have already happened, so from a statistical standpoint regarding the likelihood of winning this season, they don't matter at all.

There are indeed valid reasons why having won it the last 3 seasons could make it marginally more difficult this seasons (some player's desire affected, opponents like Chelsea and Liverpool more motivated, etc), but these are subjective and unquantifiable reasons.

Put it this way: suppose you flipped a coin 9 times, and all 9 times it came up heads. What are the odds of flipping heads 10 consecutive times? Extremely low. So what are the odds the final toss will come up heads? 50-50. Dispute that and you shouldn't be allowed to vote, breed, or in fact live.