European Cup two-legged ties, here are the statistical facts

1) It is an advantage to play the first leg away.

2) Away goals are important, but no guarantee of winning a tie.

3) Neither side has a real advantage after a 0-0 draw in the first leg.

These are raw hard numbers. I'm not predicting what WILL happen, I'm displaying what HAS happened since 1995.


These numbers are based on all two-legged Champions League ties, beginning in 1995, until the end of the 2007 tournament.

First, the home/away first leg thing.

There have been 110 total ties since 1995.

The side playing at home first lost 64 and won only 46.

So it is a considerable statistical disadvantage to play at home first.

However, there are anomalies. This disparity is due primarily to 3 seasons. In 2001, the team playing the first leg at home lost 5 of 6 ties. In 2002, they lost all 6 ties. And in 2006, they lost 11 of 14.

Other than those 3 years, the results have been fairly even. But those years can't be discounted.

Away goals:

There have been 219 total games played (not 220 - Inter forfeited a game in
2005).

At least one away goal was scored in 131 of those games. Keep in mind that in a tie, both teams can score away goals, but only one can win the tie (obvious, I know).

The team scoring at least one away goal in a game went on to win that tie 81 times.

They lost 50 times.

So while it is obviously a considerable advantage to score away from home, it is no guarantee of winning the tie. 50 times since 1995, a team has scored away from home in a tie they went on to lose.

First leg ends 0-0

The situation United is in. There is the slightest of statistical advantages for the home side in the second leg. This scenario has happened 16 times. The home team won the tie 9 times, and lost it 7 times.

So, draw your own conclusions, but there are the numbers.

btw I may be a saddo, but not because I spent hours compiling this. I had a friend on FIFA's technical staff, with access to the databases of every major tournament, run a simple filter to get these numbers.

We'll beat them by two clear goals.

Good stuff, Grimson. Although I will say that you can't look only at the raw data, you have to also take account of seeding. Seeding means that the team playing at home in the second leg is going to be the favourite a higher proportion of the time. If you adjust for the relative strength of the teams, the benefit of playing at home in the second leg all but disappears.

It's worth noting that this wasn't the case in the early days of the competition, when playing at home in the second leg did offer a fairly significant statistical advantage. However, this advantage has decreased almost year-on-year since the mid 1980s, to the point that the order of the tie is now statistically irrelevant.

Thinking about it, whenever we've played Barcelona away before we've conceded at least two goals so from that point of view it's not too bad. Win at OT and we're in Moscow. I'd fancy us to do it but with it being so close to the Chelsea game it's going to be hard to find the energy to really go at them.

Monaco & Real Madrid keep popping in my head.

You thin 0-0 is a good result then we get them back at ours and give them the away goal.

Now I've had time to calm down I'm seeing some positives. One positive is, it's simple for United, no scenarios etc. Win, and you're in Moscow. So it's just like playing a vital title race game, a draw is shit so we have to try to win every game. There's gonna be no scenarios when they may have to defend/keep attacking etc which sometimes costs you the game 'cos you don't know what to do. If we take the lead it's just like any game when we take the league, we'll play our usual way.

The only issue is the Chelsea game so close to it, I just hope we've got the energy on Tuesday.

It's Real Madrid 2000 all over again.

We go into the match as heavy favourites. Our Spanish opposition are in complete turmoil, fans turning on the club, players not getting along, League all but gone. Written off by their own press, fans shitting it. We turn up, let them have the ball and give them confidence as they realise we aren't the "Super Team" the press has built us up too be.

I'm absolutely shitting Tuesday. You can almost predict how it'll go. We'll attack from the off, miss a few good chances, then concede on the break. Probably end a score draw

I was so disappointed with how we played over there. Spent the whole game giving them the £#%&!ing ball, sat deep and allowed them to come at us. Rubbish. For most of the 1st half, it was like Men against Boys.

Originally Posted by The Watcher

It's Real Madrid 2000 all over again.

We go into the match as heavy favourites. Our Spanish opposition are in complete turmoil, fans turning on the club, players not getting along, League all but gone. Written off by their own press, fans shitting it. We turn up, let them have the ball and give them confidence as they realise we aren't the "Super Team" the press has built us up too be.

I'm absolutely shitting Tuesday. You can almost predict how it'll go. We'll attack from the off, miss a few good chances, then concede on the break. Probably end a score draw

I was so disappointed with how we played over there. Spent the whole game giving them the £#%&!ing ball, sat deep and allowed them to come at us. Rubbish. For most of the 1st half, it was like Men against Boys.

Agree with everything you say, and my biggest fear is that it will be Thierry Henry that does the damage

Originally Posted by edwin

Agree with everything you say, and my biggest fear is that it will be Thierry Henry that does the damage

I’m dreading Tuesday. Part of me doesn’t even want to be there! We’ve had so many European failures over the last decade; I really don’t have the heart for another one. Dortmund, Monaco, Madrid (2000), Leverkusen, Porto…it’s just gunna be “one of those nights”, I can £#%&!ing tell

Originally Posted by Grimson

First leg ends 0-0

The situation United is in. There is the slightest of statistical advantages for the home side in the second leg. This scenario has happened 16 times. The home team won the tie 9 times, and lost it 7 times.

So, draw your own conclusions, but there are the numbers.

why not just look at the times united have drawn 0-0? we've only ever won one tie and that was against some greek shite.

otherwise, we've £#%&!ed up every time.

Originally Posted by The Watcher

I’m dreading Tuesday. Part of me doesn’t even want to be there! We’ve had so many European failures over the last decade; I really don’t have the heart for another one. Dortmund, Monaco, Madrid (2000), Leverkusen, Porto…it’s just gunna be “one of those nights”, I can £#%&!ing tell

The Barca fans were pleased with their performance but not the result. In fact, they were saying that's the best they have played all season. They'll be as worried (if not more) about Tuesday as we are.

I still think they will score at Old Trafford. We have to at least test Valdes. I don't think he's ever had an easier nights football in his career as he did on Wednesday.

Saying that, it was pretty comfortable for VDS too.

The encouraging thing is that United tend to be at their best when it's backs to the wall time and they have GOT to win, e.g. the Juventus semi or even Arsenal a couple of weeks ago. Ideally we need to do to Chelsea what we did to Barca, give nothing away, conserve some energy, get the draw, and then let rip on Tuesday.

It's gonna be a £#%&!ing stressful week

Originally Posted by wiganste

The Barca fans were pleased with their performance but not the result. In fact, they were saying that's the best they have played all season. They'll be as worried (if not more) about Tuesday as we are.

er... they'll be confident after the best performance of season, surely?

Originally Posted by wiganste

The Barca fans were pleased with their performance but not the result. In fact, they were saying that's the best they have played all season. They'll be as worried (if not more) about Tuesday as we are.

I still think they will score at Old Trafford. We have to at least test Valdes. I don't think he's ever had an easier nights football in his career as he did on Wednesday.

Saying that, it was pretty comfortable for VDS too.

Yea, I guess if you want to look at the positive (yea right ), Barca played their best game in two seasons and couldn't score against us. But I've no doubt they will, probably first, at OT.

I just wish Fergie had gone with a more positive intent, we always £#%&! up when we fail to get an away goal.

On a lighter note, did you hear about the poor £#%&!er who paid £300 for a ticket, only to discover that it was a ticket for the museum tour, not a ticket to the game

united got what they wanted from the game over there. sure, my daydreams before the game were of united playing barca off the park and going in four up at half time, but it was never going to happen.

it would have been nice to win 2-0 or to grab an away goal or two, but our primary goal, as the tactics show, was to avoid allowing barca to get a lead to defend at ot. now, that might have been clever or stupid - only time will tell - but it was what fergie wanted and what he got. he's obviously confident that we can beat them at ot.

as i've said before, if someone had said at the start of the season we could have a one-leg game with home advantage against barca to get to the cl final i'd have bitten their hand off. it's a good situation to be in, it's in our hands.

if we can't beat barca at ot next week then we don't deserve to be in the final of the cl.

Originally Posted by jem

er... they'll be confident after the best performance of season, surely?

I dunno. Maybe they're thinking if they can't score after playing well (I don't think the played particularly well) then if they have an off day at OT, they'll get a pasting.

Maybe it was there chance on Wednesday....

It's a nice museum, to be fair. Wonder if he tried the 'Camp Nou Live' thing?

Originally Posted by The Watcher

Yea, I guess if you want to look at the positive (yea right ), Barca played their best game in two seasons and couldn't score against us. But I've no doubt they will, probably first, at OT.

I just wish Fergie had gone with a more positive intent, we always £#%&! up when we fail to get an away goal.

On a lighter note, did you hear about the poor £#%&!er who paid £300 for a ticket, only to discover that it was a ticket for the museum tour, not a ticket to the game

The negativity shown by Utd was shite. If we attacked, we would have scored. Valdes didn't have his hands warmed once.


As for the 300 quid museum ticket. £#%&!ing hell fire.

They were going for less than face at kick off time

Originally Posted by borsuk

united got what they wanted from the game over there. sure, my daydreams before the game were of united playing barca off the park and going in four up at half time, but it was never going to happen.

it would have been nice to win 2-0 or to grab an away goal or two, but our primary goal, as the tactics show, was to avoid allowing barca to get a lead to defend at ot. now, that might have been clever or stupid - only time will tell - but it was what fergie wanted and what he got. he's obviously confident that we can beat them at ot.

as i've said before, if someone had said at the start of the season we could have a one-leg game with home advantage against barca to get to the cl final i'd have bitten their hand off. it's a good situation to be in, it's in our hands.

if we can't beat barca at ot next week then we don't deserve to be in the final of the cl.

0-0 away from home is a good result - for both teams. We all know that if we showed just a little bit going forward, we would have scored.

We could be dreaming of Moscow already but it'll be touching cloth time at 7.45 on Tuesday for the 90 (or 120 mins)