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Unread 12-01-2019, 04:53 PM
red in cumbria
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lodestar View Post
Pretty much what the EU wanted - a domestic impasse.

Seems to me the WA will be voted down. Corbyn can push for a vote of no confidence in the Government but the Tories would then have to bring down their own party and conservative remainer MPs in leave seats would be finished. Bole is already in the process of being deselected.

When it is voted down then May should speak to the country and state negotiations with the EU had ultimately failed and we leave with no deal. There is nothing parliament can do to stop it

The general election in 2016 gave no indication of buyers remorse.
The Lib Dems ran on a ticket of anti-Brexit and got cained. A 2nd referundum isn't worth the cost or effort as the outcome will be the same. Leave will win by an even bigger margin.

Spend the 39 billon on supporting businesses to transition etc.
This is utterly delusional, even leaving aside that the GE was in 2017 not 2016.

Parliament might not be able do do anything about it *directly*, even if a majority are dead against no deal (and they are)

But most of her cabinet (who are also anti no deal) would walk - and if so she could not continue as PM.

And whether another GE or a new Tory PM emerged from the chaos, one of the first things to happen would be an extension/revocation of A50.

The idea no-deal could be finessed with a bit of "transition" is also pie in the sky. It would be the biggest calamity to hit this country since WW2, and put the Tories out of office for 50 years.

And that last bit is maybe the clinching reason why it remains very unlikely to happen.
 
Unread 12-01-2019, 04:54 PM
TravellingRed
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tatty
Tbf to May there is no deal that the opposition would support that isn't remaining.

I still can't work out what happens from here.

Somebody is going to have to take the rap for stopping Brexit and there is no reason why May/Tories should volunteer for the absolute sh*tstorm which is going to happen.

It is going to need Labour to step up to the plate and demand A50 be revoked but even then remainer MP's are doing everything possible to avoid being the ones to actually stop Brexit.

And a 2ndRef doesn't seem possible either; parliament won't allow 'no deal' on the ballot which would leave Remain vs a deal they had massively rejected. How could the deal be legitimately offered? And who would campaign for the deal? Nobody. Ref2 is just cancelling Brexit and remaining and would end up being boycotted by millions of voters and have no legitimacy.

Revoking A50, to what purpose? The only purpose would be as a stepping stone to cancelling Brexit as there isn't a new deal to be offered.

A new GE won't have the support in parliament because as long as the deal hasn't gone through then the DUP won't back a VoNC.

All avenues seem blocked which is what makes it so fascinating to watch.
EEA membership like Norway. Of leavers grumble replay the footage of prominent leavers rabbiting on about being like Norway.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tatty
Where do you see the numbers coming from?

The last time I checked she was heading for something like a 150+ defeat.

Labour will scream for May to do something different and not bring the deal back.

What they mean of course is for her to revoke A50, call Ref2 or call a GE but without explicitly saying it.

Corbyn is going to have to get off the fence at some point.
Corbin has called for a GE.
 
Unread 12-01-2019, 05:30 PM
Lodestar
 
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by red in cumbria View Post
This is utterly delusional, even leaving aside that the GE was in 2017 not 2016.

Parliament might not be able do do anything about it *directly*, even if a majority are dead against no deal (and they are)

But most of her cabinet (who are also anti no deal) would walk - and if so she could not continue as PM.

And whether another GE or a new Tory PM emerged from the chaos, one of the first things to happen would be an extension/revocation of A50.

The idea no-deal could be finessed with a bit of "transition" is also pie in the sky. It would be the biggest calamity to hit this country since WW2, and put the Tories out of office for 50 years.

And that last bit is maybe the clinching reason why it remains very unlikely to happen.
Ok, corrected 2017 - a typo. But delusional?

The horse has bolted with the calamity / sky falling in stuff. It never eventuated post-referendum and the public aren't buying it now. The people pushing this are often committed to political union with the EU as much as economic, but invoke the economic argument in the belief it has the biggest fear factor / impact. Maybe Osbourne and Cameron shouldn't have cried wolf in 2016?

Bottom line for those who voted remain is that anything that can overturn the referendum result should be pursued. .Immediately following the result a petition was started that attracted 2 millon signatories stating the vote was advisory and should be ignored. I think Vince Cable and David Lammy probably signed it. Anyway, it indicated what was coming. The result wasn't respected. The fake news / low information / Russian bots stuff soon followed.

Anyway, majority of the Tories would support no deal in the face of a GE and Corbyn getting in Article 50 isn't going to be revoked by the current or any incoming PM.


For the record l never voted in the Referendum as l was uncertain Everything l've seen since has convinced me the EU is a failing institution and tthe public was ahead of the curve.
 
Unread 12-01-2019, 05:50 PM
Albert Tatlock
 
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Whatever happens, you need a withdrawal agreement.

The WA is simply an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK, the rights of UK citizens in the EU and a transition period so that everyone can prepare sensibly for the future. The so called "divorce payment" of 39bn will have to be paid no matter what, it's unavoidable and it's probably not even 39bn and it doesn't need to be paid until 2060. Those who still don't understand this should be ashamed of themselves.

Passing the WA will give the UK all the choice it wants and the time to do any of them sensibly. Please note well that the EU already conceded that the UK can negotiate FTAs with whoever it wants to during the transition period. Thus,

If you want a so called clean brexit where you do super mega trade deals with the US and who ever else you want to, the you sign the WA, enter transition and negotiate calmly those trade deals which will then come into force on Jan 1st 2021. Anyone who thinks that leaving without a WA on 29/03/2019 and signing an immediate FTA with the states is a better solution, is complete and utter fucking idiot ! If you rush into a trade deal with the USA because you are desperate to get something, they will fuck you over hard. Just remember Trump's own words... America First ! Take your time and do a sensible deal with the US that is of benefit to the UK, not just to the US.

If you want a Canada ++ deal with the EU, then sign the WA, enter transition and negotiate that deal calmly and start it on 1st Jan 2021

If you want Norway + then sign the WA, enter transition and negotiate that deal calmly and start it on 1st Jan 2021.

If you want a "customs union and single market, jobs first brexit", then sign the WA, enter transition and negotiate that deal calmly and start it on 1st Jan 2021

The withdrawal agreement is not the "deal", bad ,good or otherwise, it's simply a means to calmly transit to the final arrangement that the UK wants.

The choices are simple.

Pass the WA, then use the transition period to negotiate what the UK wants the final state to be. Labour could help this happen in return for representation during the "real" negotiation.

Do nothing and fall out of the EU with no agreement at the end of March. This is the preferred option of Jacob Rees Mogg, Redwood, Johnson, Lawson, Patel, Raaab and anyone who has a hedge fund with positions to benefit from this.

Revoke a50 and remain.

There will be NO GE. The tories and the devil's union of protestants won't allow it.

There will be no new negotiations with the EU until April after the UK has left. If there is no WA I doubt there would be anything to negotiate anyway.

Last edited by Albert Tatlock; 12-01-2019 at 05:52 PM.
 
Unread 12-01-2019, 05:54 PM
jem
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Albert Tatlock View Post
The WA is simply an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK, the rights of UK citizens in the EU and a transition period so that everyone can prepare sensibly for the future.
aside from the backstop.
 
Unread 12-01-2019, 06:02 PM
Albert Tatlock
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jem View Post
aside from the backstop.
If the MPs take their heads out of their arses, they'd not need to go anywhere near the backstop as they'll have negotiated the final arrangement well before the end of 2020.

The EU conceded that during the backstop, all of the UK could remain in the customs union, not just NI. This in fact gives the UK a distinct advantage. This also means that NI will never be treated differently from the rest of the UK, thus the devil's union of protestants don't actually need to get angry about it...

The backstop is only there because Ireland want it. If Ireland say it can go, then it'll be gone faster that you can say "to be sure" ... twice.
 
Unread 12-01-2019, 06:10 PM
jem
 
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Albert Tatlock
If the MPs take their heads out of their arses, they'd not need to go anywhere near the backstop as they'll have negotiated the final arrangement well before the end of 2020.

The EU conceded that during the backstop, all of the UK could remain in the customs union, not just NI. This in fact gives the UK a distinct advantage. This also means that NI will never be treated differently from the rest of the UK, thus the devil's union of protestants don't actually need to get angry about it...

The backstop is only there because Ireland want it. If Ireland say it can go, then it'll be gone faster that you can say "to be sure" ... twice.
yes, but.... we can't easily negotiate canada+ and stay in a customs union.
 
Unread 12-01-2019, 06:17 PM
Fat Al
 
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tatty View Post
Tbf to May there is no deal that the opposition would support that isn't remaining.

I still can't work out what happens from here.

Somebody is going to have to take the rap for stopping Brexit and there is no reason why May/Tories should volunteer for the absolute sh*tstorm which is going to happen.

It is going to need Labour to step up to the plate and demand A50 be revoked but even then remainer MP's are doing everything possible to avoid being the ones to actually stop Brexit.

And a 2ndRef doesn't seem possible either; parliament won't allow 'no deal' on the ballot which would leave Remain vs a deal they had massively rejected. How could the deal be legitimately offered? And who would campaign for the deal? Nobody. Ref2 is just cancelling Brexit and remaining and would end up being boycotted by millions of voters and have no legitimacy.

Revoking A50, to what purpose? The only purpose would be as a stepping stone to cancelling Brexit as there isn't a new deal to be offered.

A new GE won't have the support in parliament because as long as the deal hasn't gone through then the DUP won't back a VoNC.

All avenues seem blocked which is what makes it so fascinating to watch.
It would be if we weren't the ones that are going to have to deal with the incoming shit storm.
 
Unread 12-01-2019, 06:22 PM
Albert Tatlock
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jem View Post
yes, but.... we can't easily negotiate canada+ and stay in a customs union.
My name is not Cromwell, I did't cause the problem. What's your solution then ? No back stop ? Talk to the Irish... offer them reunification with the motherland... I'm sure they'll agree.
 
Unread 13-01-2019, 06:47 AM
no fun
 
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I voted remain, and to date Iíve not read or heard anything that has convinced me that leaving the EU is anything but absolute madness.....until I read this intelligent, well reasoned arguement by Cardiff City manager Neil Warnock

https://www.theguardian.com/football...y-brexit-leave
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