Group H Finale : Ghana v Uruguay, South Korea v portugal 2/12 3pm

It was obvious from the first few games that the top level European competition teams whose players have been exhausted by European Cup/high level domestic competition are struggling against fitter players from nations whose players have not had the sheer volume of minutes through the season, or at the level of intensity. Not every game, clearly, but far far more than would ever be the average.

Would have to do some modelling work to see the gains by betting on the opposition team against each of the FIFA top 10 ranked teams on a game-to-game basis .. I imagine it is an unprecedentedly high return

Originally Posted by ErikvanHaaksbergen

It was obvious from the first few games that the top level European competition teams whose players have been exhausted by European Cup/high level domestic competition are struggling against fitter players from nations whose players have not had the sheer volume of minutes through the season, or at the level of intensity. Not every game, clearly, but far far more than would ever be the average.

Would have to do some modelling work to see the gains by betting on the opposition team against each of the FIFA top 10 ranked teams on a game-to-game basis .. I imagine it is an unprecedentedly high return

European players are tired when a tournament is at the end of a season and now they are tired mid-season too? Why is it that for example American players who finished their domestic season last month and have much longer travel time to games in the MLS aren’t looking tired?

Originally Posted by Chris Quayd

European players are tired when a tournament is at the end of a season and now they are tired mid-season too? Why is it that for example American players who finished their domestic season last month and have much longer travel time to games in the MLS aren’t looking tired?

There is typically a full 6 week break between close of European domestic season and start of the World Cup. For players in the Champions League final in 2018, there was a full 3 week break. This is several weeks of total downtime.

For this World Cup there was an 8 day break between the latest European domestic league game and start of World Cup, with the top players having factored champions league football alongside domestic season. No downtime. This comes after a shortened summer break, with several weeks of pre-season shaved off. The zero downtime between European league competition being paused and WC starting is compounded by the pre-season having being shortened. Minutes piled on minutes with no respite.

For middling league players who have less cup commitments or highly patriotic players who have had periods of "injury" to rest (see: Antony; Richarlison) this is fine -- indeed for some it is a boon, who have no doubt spent the past 6-12 months exclusively managing their time/fitness for their tournament. For the players playing full throttle Champions League / top League football it is brutal.

Two options. You either think that France/Portugal/Germany/Spain/Belgium/Argentina losing to a motley crew of Saudi Arabia/Morocco/Tunisia/Japan/South Korea etc. is a pure freak of chance, or you can perceive some underlying conditions that have created these results at historically unprecedented levels.

And if you think playing two games a week is exhausting, try reading that

Originally Posted by andyroo

And if you think playing two games a week is exhausting, try reading that

Wheat and chaff ..

Originally Posted by ErikvanHaaksbergen

There is typically a full 6 week break between close of European domestic season and start of the World Cup. For players in the Champions League final in 2018, there was a full 3 week break. This is several weeks of total downtime.

So European based players shouldn't complain of tiredness during summer world cups?

Originally Posted by ErikvanHaaksbergen

Two options. You either think that France/Portugal/Germany/Spain/Belgium/Argentina losing to a motley crew of Saudi Arabia/Morocco/Tunisia/Japan/South Korea etc. is a pure freak of chance, or you can perceive some underlying conditions that have created these results at historically unprecedented levels.

Yes, the underlying conditions are that the gap between Europe and the rest of the world is getting smaller.

https://twitter.com/FeFeTheOriginal/status/1598745961597005824?t=9FJ3LfS7B_d0pd-D36-Ywg&s=19

Originally Posted by Chris Quayd

Yes, the underlying conditions are that the gap between Europe and the rest of the world is getting smaller.

A very stupid interpretation, I'm sorry.
To redeem, you would need to explain the basis on which the first-team of Saudi Arabia/Tunisia/Japan/Morocco etc. is somehow more competitive now with individuals succeeding at a higher level of competition than in previous decades relative with peers, and whether that closeness was reflected in odds. You cannot.

Originally Posted by ErikvanHaaksbergen

A very stupid interpretation, I'm sorry.
To redeem, you would need to explain the basis on which the first-team of Saudi Arabia/Tunisia/Japan/Morocco etc. is somehow more competitive now with individuals succeeding at a higher level of competition than in previous decades relative with peers, and whether that closeness was reflected in odds. You cannot.

Let's try this again, are European players tired during summer world cups?

It is entirely possible that the domestic leagues of Saudi Arabia/Tunisia/Japan/Morocco etc have improved their standard without "individuals succeeding at a higher level of competition than in previous decades relative with peers". Do you watch much of those leagues? You are keen on evidence but you haven't provided any that shows that the rest of the world have improved results through not being as tired.

Originally Posted by ErikvanHaaksbergen

A very stupid interpretation, I'm sorry.
To redeem, you would need to explain the basis on which the first-team of Saudi Arabia/Tunisia/Japan/Morocco etc. is somehow more competitive now with individuals succeeding at a higher level of competition than in previous decades relative with peers, and whether that closeness was reflected in odds. You cannot.

Two of those teams went out in the group stages, with the Saudis finishing bottom of their group. The two that went through have majority of players who play in Europe. Were the more or less tired. I don't get the argument.

Maybe the competition is getting closer because the competition is getting closer.

The standard of ‘superstars’ is the lowest in my lifetime. Same in the champions league. Teams are far more functional. Not necessarily worse, but if a team can match workrate, stay organised and the coaches can win the little tactical battles, it’s often enough. It’s a leveller. There’s fewer players that can just take a game away from you.

You used to look at the likes of Brazil and think you just can’t compete with some of those players. If they turn up, you lose. Simple as. You look around every team in the last 16 now and there’s one or two stars, but not many to fear.

France has Mbappe and not much else. Spain still rely on Morata. Brazil start with Richarlison. The two biggest stars in the game are 37 and 35 and their powers are waning.

It’s why I think England will do ok. They’ve looked as solid as anyone so far.

Everyone is fitter, more functional and better organised in the main. Actual individual quality is way, way down imo.

The historically weaker nations are deffo catching up as a result of individuality and talent being eschewed in favour of athleticism and conformity more than ever before in Europe.

Teams just won’t carry the luxury, maverick players, they have all the fun coached out of them too. Southgate and his use of Grealish, Foden, Rashford etc. is a perfect example. He’d rather have an average as £#%&!, try nothing speed merchant like Sterling or worker like Mount than someone who might drag his arse covering or try a risky pass. He’d drop Bellingham for Phillps in a heartbeat. Just be glad David Batty has retired.

Even Portugal started the tournament with Silva on the bench and haven’t started Leao yet.

Run of the mill work horses preferred

Originally Posted by dunk

Everyone is fitter, more functional and better organised in the main. Actual individual quality is way, way down imo.

The historically weaker nations are deffo catching up as a result of individuality and talent being eschewed in favour of athleticism and conformity more than ever before in Europe.

Teams just won’t carry the luxury, maverick players, they have all the fun coached out of them too. Southgate and his use of Grealish, Foden, Rashford etc. is a perfect example. He’d rather have an average as £#%&!, try nothing speed merchant like Sterling or worker like Mount than someone who might drag his arse covering or try a risky pass. He’d drop Bellingham for Phillps in a heartbeat. Just be glad David Batty has retired.

Even Portugal started the tournament with Silva on the bench and haven’t started Leao yet.

Run of the mill work horses preferred

Yep.

Originally Posted by dunk

Everyone is fitter, more functional and better organised in the main. Actual individual quality is way, way down imo.

The historically weaker nations are deffo catching up as a result of individuality and talent being eschewed in favour of athleticism and conformity more than ever before in Europe.

Teams just won’t carry the luxury, maverick players, they have all the fun coached out of them too. Southgate and his use of Grealish, Foden, Rashford etc. is a perfect example. He’d rather have an average as f***, try nothing speed merchant like Sterling or worker like Mount than someone who might drag his arse covering or try a risky pass. He’d drop Bellingham for Phillps in a heartbeat. Just be glad David Batty has retired.

Even Portugal started the tournament with Silva on the bench and haven’t started Leao yet.

Run of the mill work horses preferred

This is completely wrong. Let's look at this objectively:

"Even Portugal started the tournament with Silva on the bench and haven’t started Leao yet .. Run of the mill work horses preferred"

Portugal have played Ronaldo for 235 out of 270 minutes. He is a 37 year old who cannot run. If, in the entire history of professional football, there is an antithesis to a 'work horse' .. Ronaldo is that living & breathing antithesis.

Argentina, meanwhile, have lined up with a 35 year old Messi for every minute of the tournament, while Di Maria (35 in 2 months) has played 240 out of 270 minutes. Again, antithesis of work horses.

Of the 5 largest upsets, only 1 side (France v. Tunisia) did not employ 4 forwards / attacking midfielders.

Your "perfect example" is the team that has scored the most goals of the 32 teams in the tournament ..

This is not an outcome based on aesthetic systems .. employing fantastical scenarios with no basis in reality ("(Southgate) would drop Bellingham for Phillps in a heartbeat. Just be glad David Batty has retired") is not helpful analysis .. I could go deeper into this but come on, I only have so much time in the day to correct, please start putting your brain into gear ..

Originally Posted by ErikvanHaaksbergen

Would have to do some modelling work to see the gains by betting on the opposition team against each of the FIFA top 10 ranked teams on a game-to-game basis .. I imagine it is an unprecedentedly high return

Originally Posted by ErikvanHaaksbergen

This is completely wrong. Let's look at this objectively:

"Even Portugal started the tournament with Silva on the bench and haven’t started Leao yet .. Run of the mill work horses preferred"

Portugal have played Ronaldo for 235 out of 270 minutes. He is a 37 year old who cannot run. If, in the entire history of professional football, there is an antithesis to a 'work horse' .. Ronaldo is that living & breathing antithesis.

Argentina, meanwhile, have lined up with a 35 year old Messi for every minute of the tournament, while Di Maria (35 in 2 months) has played 240 out of 270 minutes. Again, antithesis of work horses.

Of the 5 largest upsets, only 1 side (France v. Tunisia) did not employ 4 forwards / attacking midfielders.

Your "perfect example" is the team that has scored the most goals of the 32 teams in the tournament ..

This is not an outcome based on aesthetic systems .. employing fantastical scenarios with no basis in reality ("(Southgate) would drop Bellingham for Phillps in a heartbeat. Just be glad David Batty has retired") is not helpful analysis .. I could go deeper into this but come on, I only have so much time in the day to correct, please start putting your brain into gear ..

Please don’t. I have no idea what you’re on about anyway.

Originally Posted by ErikvanHaaksbergen

This is completely wrong. Let's look at this objectively:

"Even Portugal started the tournament with Silva on the bench and haven’t started Leao yet .. Run of the mill work horses preferred"

Portugal have played Ronaldo for 235 out of 270 minutes. He is a 37 year old who cannot run. If, in the entire history of professional football, there is an antithesis to a 'work horse' .. Ronaldo is that living & breathing antithesis.

Argentina, meanwhile, have lined up with a 35 year old Messi for every minute of the tournament, while Di Maria (35 in 2 months) has played 240 out of 270 minutes. Again, antithesis of work horses.

Of the 5 largest upsets, only 1 side (France v. Tunisia) did not employ 4 forwards / attacking midfielders.

Your "perfect example" is the team that has scored the most goals of the 32 teams in the tournament ..

This is not an outcome based on aesthetic systems .. employing fantastical scenarios with no basis in reality ("(Southgate) would drop Bellingham for Phillps in a heartbeat. Just be glad David Batty has retired") is not helpful analysis .. I could go deeper into this but come on, I only have so much time in the day to correct, please start putting your brain into gear ..

What’s your point?