European Cup two-legged ties, here are the statistical facts

Originally Posted by borsuk

united got what they wanted from the game over there. sure, my daydreams before the game were of united playing barca off the park and going in four up at half time, but it was never going to happen.

it would have been nice to win 2-0 or to grab an away goal or two, but our primary goal, as the tactics show, was to avoid allowing barca to get a lead to defend at ot. now, that might have been clever or stupid - only time will tell - but it was what fergie wanted and what he got. he's obviously confident that we can beat them at ot.

as i've said before, if someone had said at the start of the season we could have a one-leg game with home advantage against barca to get to the cl final i'd have bitten their hand off. it's a good situation to be in, it's in our hands.

if we can't beat barca at ot next week then we don't deserve to be in the final of the cl.

another gem from our resident football guru.
"football is a science not a sport"

Originally Posted by marlo stansfield

another gem from our resident football guru.
"football is a science not a sport"

no that's boxing shorty

Originally Posted by borsuk

as i've said before, if someone had said at the start of the season we could have a one-leg game with home advantage against barca to get to the cl final i'd have bitten their hand off.

Talk about stating the obvious. You could say exactly the same about Barca, if you'd offered them the chance of going to OT needing just a draw or a win to get to the final they'd have had your hand off.

it's in our hands.

This doesn't mean anything. If we were 5-0 down from the first leg it would still technically be 'in our hands'.

We do have an advantage because...Instead of going into the game of keeping it tight don't concede play for the draw, We know we have to win to go through and that gives us a better mentality going to into the game.

Originally Posted by Rossobianchi

We do have an advantage because...Instead of going into the game of keeping it tight don't concede play for the draw, We know we have to win to go through and that gives us a better mentality going to into the game.

There's the away goals factor to consider though. So I expect that we're still going to be quite cautious.

Originally Posted by Rossobianchi

We do have an advantage because...Instead of going into the game of keeping it tight don't concede play for the draw, We know we have to win to go through and that gives us a better mentality going to into the game.

another gem.
away goals? what away goals?

Originally Posted by Serenity Now

There's the away goals factor to consider though. So I expect that we're still going to be quite cautious.

Originally Posted by marlo stansfield

another gem.
away goals? what away goals?

And if we win away goals do nothing, that's why we are better off. We will obviously keep it tight, but were not in two minds we know we can't play for a draw we have to win so we are better off. But barca will think that aswell.

Originally Posted by Grimson

1) It is an advantage to play the first leg away.

2) Away goals are important, but no guarantee of winning a tie.

3) Neither side has a real advantage after a 0-0 draw in the first leg.

These are raw hard numbers. I'm not predicting what WILL happen, I'm displaying what HAS happened since 1995.


These numbers are based on all two-legged Champions League ties, beginning in 1995, until the end of the 2007 tournament.

First, the home/away first leg thing.

There have been 110 total ties since 1995.

The side playing at home first lost 64 and won only 46.

So it is a considerable statistical disadvantage to play at home first.

However, there are anomalies. This disparity is due primarily to 3 seasons. In 2001, the team playing the first leg at home lost 5 of 6 ties. In 2002, they lost all 6 ties. And in 2006, they lost 11 of 14.

Other than those 3 years, the results have been fairly even. But those years can't be discounted.

Away goals:

There have been 219 total games played (not 220 - Inter forfeited a game in
2005).

At least one away goal was scored in 131 of those games. Keep in mind that in a tie, both teams can score away goals, but only one can win the tie (obvious, I know).

The team scoring at least one away goal in a game went on to win that tie 81 times.

They lost 50 times.

So while it is obviously a considerable advantage to score away from home, it is no guarantee of winning the tie. 50 times since 1995, a team has scored away from home in a tie they went on to lose.

First leg ends 0-0

The situation United is in. There is the slightest of statistical advantages for the home side in the second leg. This scenario has happened 16 times. The home team won the tie 9 times, and lost it 7 times.

So, draw your own conclusions, but there are the numbers.

statistics
n plural noun [treated as singular] the practice or science of collecting and analysing numerical data in large quantities, especially for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those in a representative sample.

If we're 2-1 up with 10 minutes to go...I'll probably suffer a stroke before full time

Originally Posted by The Watcher

If we're 2-1 up with 10 minutes to go...I'll probably suffer a stroke before full time

Vinegar?

Originally Posted by The Watcher

If we're 2-1 up with 10 minutes to go...I'll probably suffer a stroke before full time

Especially as you just know we'll stand off them in that situation. Can you imagine that scenario and we're watching Xavi and Deco passing it around inside our half, waiting for the opening? I don't think I'd be able to cope with that.

I'm confident, but it's probably going to be torture to watch.

Originally Posted by Gog Coch

Vinegar?

Only if we win

Originally Posted by S/Side.Red

Especially as you just know we'll stand off them in that situation. Can you imagine that scenario and we're watching Xavi and Deco passing it around inside our half, waiting for the opening? I don't think I'd be able to cope with that.

I'm confident, but it's probably going to be torture to watch.

Similar to the end of the Arsenal game - the last 10 minutes especially were horrible.

I never thought I'd feel as bad about losing a European Cup semi-fdinal as I did in Leverkusen...I'm still gutted by it

but if we don't put those @#%&!s out on Tuesday it will feel just as bad

Originally Posted by £#%&! KFC

I never thought I'd feel as bad about losing a European Cup semi-fdinal as I did in Leverkusen...I'm still gutted by it

but if we don't put those @#%&!s out on Tuesday it will feel just as bad

Dortmund

Just for the chances missed, one of the most absurd matches in the history of football, Eric missing from 2 yards, Giggs sent on carrying an injury, limping about, we might not have been ready to beat Juve in the final, but we should have been there.

Leverkused was shocking, a collective loss of nerve.

Originally Posted by Tiberian

Dortmund

Just for the chances missed, one of the most absurd matches in the history of football, Eric missing from 2 yards, Giggs sent on carrying an injury, limping about, we might not have been ready to beat Juve in the final, but we should have been there.

Leverkused was shocking, a collective loss of nerve.

Leverkusen actually felt worse than Dortmund, for a start it was away goals and at least Dortmund wnet on to win it ...Leverkusen were there for the taking in both games, I know Dortmund were but at least they managed to beat us

Originally Posted by £#%&! KFC

Leverkusen actually felt worse than Dortmund, for a start it was away goals and at least Dortmund wnet on to win it ...Leverkusen were there for the taking in both games, I know Dortmund were but at least they managed to beat us

Take the lead 3 times over the tie and still could not control it, probably our biggest failure in Europe under Fergie, especially after how well we had played against Deportiva, a very good side who we dominated over the 2 legs.

Dortmund beat us with 2 deflected goals, but Utd were probably not ready to win in Europe at that point, the Leverkusen side certainly were, Keane, Scholes, Beckham, Giggs all at their prime and Veron playing well in Europe.

99/00, going out to an average madrid side was a bad loss as well, another home game when we missed chances and got caught on the counter.

Originally Posted by Tiberian

Take the lead 3 times over the tie and still could not control it, probably our biggest failure in Europe under Fergie, especially after how well we had played against Deportiva, a very good side who we dominated over the 2 legs.

Dortmund beat us with 2 deflected goals, but Utd were probably not ready to win in Europe at that point, the Leverkusen side certainly were, Keane, Scholes, Beckham, Giggs all at their prime and Veron playing well in Europe.

99/00, going out to an average madrid side was a bad loss as well, another home game when we missed chances and got caught on the counter.

agreed...and this United side are definitely ready to win it, now or never

I've never got over that Dortmund defeat...sickening

Leverkusen just makes me £#%&!ing angry. A complete bottle job by the players - £#%&!ing scandalous. Still get angry just thinking about it

I fear Tuesday will another to add to the list. Nine semi finals, but only twice have we gone on to the final. Ridiculous.

£#%&!'s sake.

I was quite confident about everything until logging on here today.

Originally Posted by S/Side.Red

£#%&!'s sake.

I was quite confident about everything until logging on here today.

me too looks like I had too many beers in Barca and we in fact lost 3-0