Does anyone else agree with this theory....

Originally Posted by Grimson

Obviously you're right that teams that score away goals often win the ties, but just as obviously it doesn't always work out that way. Didn't help Roma much last year did it.

wasn't it 6-nil when they scored




obviously there are always exceptions. just speaking in general terms.
and you cant ignore the fact that the united away goal in a 2-1 loss was the tie turner. as soon as united got the first at home... it was over heads dropped and united cruised home.

and if you are willing supply the data from the last 10 years to make my point, that would be appreciated.

Originally Posted by user_name

wasn't it 6-nil when they scored




obviously there are always exceptions. just speaking in general terms.

and if you are willing supply the data from the last 10 years to make my point, that would be appreciated.

The data probably will support your point, but IMO your point is putting the cart before the horse. The better team generally wins the tie, so the better team is obviously more likely to score away from home than the lesser side is. I think we'll also find the team that scores more at home is more likely to win the tie.

0-0 is the only score whereby neither team goes into the second game with anything to hold on to - both have to score now. It basically boils down to a one-off game, and in our situation very similar to a final - we just have to win by whatever means necessary.

So we have a one-off game, in our own ground, backed by 75,000 of our own fans. Both teams are fairly evenly matched going forwards, but we are surely much the stronger defensively. We have to put their defence under the kind of pressure we were under last night, and see how well they can cope with it.

I just hope we see something like the level of performance that we're capable of, and that they don't crumble under the pressure of the occasion.

The next couple of games will show us what this team is really made of, we know they can play fantastically well - but can they deliver when it really matters?

We need leg saf back for the 2nd leg, it's no conincidence that him being banned has resulted in our poor form of late, nft.

I usually back united to win most games but i honestly dont think we are currently playing well enough to beat Barca. To score goals you need the ball, with Barca you see less of the ball than you normally would because they are very good in possession and that wont change at OT.

Originally Posted by Lou_Macari_Chippy

they are very good in possession and that wont change at OT.

Yes it will.

They have stats for possession. There is nothing I wouldn't bet that says United will have more possession at Old Trafford.

Originally Posted by dunk

I think playing the Away leg 1st is a massive disadvantage, always have done.

You know what is required at their ground, and a game can be won in the first few minutes as a result.

If it was the 2nd leg last Wednesday following a 0-0 at OT in the 1st leg and we got a penalty in the 2nd minute, you know he scores and it;s game over.

Also, away 2nd leg, if it goes to Extra time, you have an extra 30 minutes and only have to score 1/2 as many as your opposition.

It's £#%&!ed up.

Sorry dunker old chum, but I've crunched the numbers, and it is in fact a considerable advantage to play the away leg first.

Since 1995, 110 total ties:

Away leg first: won 64 ties, lost 46
Home leg first: won 46 ties, lost 64

I admit I thought the results would be closer to 50-50. The difference is so considerable, tho, that there's got to be something to the idea that playing the final 90 minutes before your home crowd goes a long way towards erasing a first leg disadvantage.

Originally Posted by user_name

wasn't it 6-nil when they scored




obviously there are always exceptions.

There are 50 such exceptions since 1995
just speaking in general terms.
and you cant ignore the fact that the united away goal in a 2-1 loss was the tie turner. as soon as united got the first at home... it was over heads dropped and united cruised home. Well you've just listed two goals as being the tie turner, one away and one home. Pick one.

and if you are willing supply the data from the last 10 years to make my point, that would be appreciated.

The data since 1995 showed that away goals are, of course, very valuable. But they are far from a guarantee of winning the tie. There were away goals scored in 131 games. 81 times, the team scoring away goals went on to win the tie. But 50 times they lost.

I've always thought it was an advantage to play the away tie first but a truer reflection would be to base the verdict on the results from the semi finals only where the teams are more evenly matched.

a 1-0 win for united is not out of the question but its very hard not to see Barca scoring a goal at some point, i'd be very surprised if they play 180 mins or more of football with players like Eto, Henry and Messi without scoring a goal. Stranger things have happend though.

Originally Posted by Grimson

The data since 1995 showed that away goals are, of course, very valuable. But they are far from a guarantee of winning the tie. There were away goals scored in 131 games. 81 times, the team scoring away goals went on to win the tie. But 50 times they lost.

81 vs 50?

you dont think thats a considerable margin?

what about the teams that DID NOT score away?

and to be fair i didnt say it was a guarantee. i said teams that win ties, score away goals.

good job by the way. interesting stuff.