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Unread 13-07-2008, 03:13 AM
Serenity Now
 
Default The Zidane Effect

If Zidane was really as good and as influential as some of you say, superior to Platini and drawing comparisons with some of the greatest footballers to ever play the game, then I would expect him to have made a similar impact to these players. Yet what we actually see is that the two teams he played for in his prime years actually became less successful once Zidane signed, and both improved when he left.

For someone rated as the greatest player since Maradona, and someone whose influence has been compared to that of Alfredo di Stéfano, this is rather strange, no? His impact here certainly stands in sharp contrast to some of the players with whom he has been compared.

Zidane at Juventus:
Quote:
Pre Zidane (5 seasons):

League position: 2.20
Points per game: 1.89
Goals per game: 1.68
Major trophies: 0.80 (1x Serie A, 1x Champions League, 1x UEFA Cup, 1x Coppa Italia)

Zidane era (5 seasons):

League position: 2.40
Points per game: 1.98
Goals per game: 1.57
Major trophies: 0.40 (2x Serie A)

Post Zidane (5 seasons):

League position: 1.40 [1.67 if we discount the two seasons tainted as a result of the Calciopoli scandal]
Points per game: 2.18 [2.08]
Goals per game: 1.87 [1.91]
Major trophies: 0.80 (4 x Serie A) [0.67]
So relative to Juve's performance level prior to and after Zidane's arrival in Turin, we see a decrease in goals scored per game, a slight worsening in average league position, and a significant drop in terms of major trophies won per season.

Then, after Zidane departs for Madrid, Juve's level of performance improves quite dramatically, with an increase of over one sigma in goals per game, around one sigma in points per game, and a sharp improvement in the number of trophies that they were winning.

Zidane at Madrid:
Quote:
Pre Zidane (5 seasons):

League position: 2.60
Points per game: 1.87
Goals per game: 1.87
Major trophies: 0.80 (2x La Liga, 2x Champions League)

Zidane era (5 seasons):

League position: 2.00
Points per game: 1.92
Goals per game: 1.94
Major trophies: 0.40 (1x La Liga, 1x Champions League)

Post Zidane (2 seasons):

League position: 1.00
Points per game: 2.12
Goals per game: 1.97
Major trophies: 1.00 (2x La Liga)
The statistics are a bit more positive at Madrid, although there is no statistically significant difference in terms of goals or points per game relative to their level pre and post Zidane. And, once again, we see a significant drop in terms of the club's level of success (as at Juve, a drop of 50% relative to the rate prior to his arrival).

Platini at Juventus:
Quote:
Pre Platini (5 seasons):

League position: 1.60
Points per game: 1.92
Goals per game: 1.48
Major trophies: 0.80 (3x Serie A, 1x Coppa Italia)

Platini era (5 seasons):

League position: 2.20
Points per game: 1.85
Goals per game: 1.59
Major trophies: 1.00 (2x Serie A, 1x European Cup, 1x Cup Winners' Cup, 1x Coppa Italia)

Post Platini (5 seasons):

League position: 4.60
Points per game: 1.65
Goals per game: 1.39
Major trophes: 0.40 (1x UEFA Cup, 1x Coppa Italia)
Compare this to the effect that Platini has at Juventus, joining a team that was already extremely successful domestically and helping them to become a force in European football, all whilst maintaining a high level of domestic success in a league that had become more competitive. You can also see a slight pop in terms of the amount goals that they were scoring on a regular basis.

Then, even more tellingly, look at what happens after Platini leaves - the success dries up pretty much immediately and we see a hefty drop (over one sigma) in terms of goals per game, mean league position (over one sigma) and points per game (around one sigma).

And, of course, there is the incredible direct impact that Platini makes in terms of creating and scoring goals, becoming Capocannoniere in three successive Serie A seasons, a phenomenal return for someone operating in his position. With Zidane there is really no comparison at all in this regard.

Maradona at Napoli:
Quote:
Pre Maradona (5 seasons):

League position: 7.40
Points per game: 1.33
Goals per game: 0.88
Major trophies: 0.00

Maradona era (7 seasons):

League position: 3.43
Points per game: 1.79
Goals per game: 1.42
Major trophies 0.57 (2x Serie A, 1x UEFA Cup, 1x Coppa Italia)

Post Maradona (5 seasons):

League position: 7.60
Points per game: 1.41
Goals per game: 1.26
Major trophies: 0.00
Or if you want an even more extreme example, Maradona at Napoli. Here we see a team that won nothing before or after Maradona's spell at the club, a team that was almost the definition of average in the 5 years prior to and after Maradona's arrival, become a consistent title contender due primarily to his presence in the team. There is an increase of over one sigma in goals per game, points per game and mean league position relative to Napoli's performance level prior to and post Maradona.

And again, as with Platini, we see an incredible impact in terms of the business of scoring and creating goals, with Maradona regularly notching double figures, and becoming Capocannoniere in 1988.

Cruijff at Ajax:
Quote:
Pre Cruijff (6 seasons, including his debut season in which he only participated in 10 matches):

League position: 4.50
Points per game: 1.75
Goals per game: 2.47
Major trophies: 0.33 (1x Eredivisie, 1x KNVB Cup)

Cruijff era (7 seasons):

League position: 1.25
Points per game: 2.50
Goals per game: 2.92
Major trophies: 1.62 (6x Eredivisie, 3x European Cup, 4x KNVB Cup)

Post Cruijff (6 seasons, including his final season in which he only played in 2 matches):

League position: 2.17
Points per game: 2.13
Goals per game: 2.34
Major trophies: 0.50 (2x Eredivisie, 1x KNVB Cup)
Cruijff at Ajax is another one where we see a huge difference in virtually any measure you want to use.

Alfredo di Stéfano at Madrid:
Quote:
Pre di Stéfano (5 seasons):

League position: 4.20
Points per game: 1.73
Goals per game: 2.48
Major trophies: 0.00

di Stéfano era (11 seasons):

League position: 1.36
Points per game: 2.18
Goals per game: 2.58
Major trophies: 1.27 (8x La Liga, 5x European Cup, 1x Copa del Rey)

Post di Stéfano (5 seasons):

League position: 1.20
Points per game: 2.13
Goals per game: 1.84
Major trophies: 1.00 (4x La Liga, 1x European Cup)
Or di Stéfano at Madrid. Coming to a club that hadn't won a league title in twenty years and virtually overnight seeing it become the most dominant team in European football history.

I really don't see how we can put Zidane in this kind of company. A wonderful player to watch, absolutely, but I don't think he made anything like the kind of consistent, decisive impact that you would expect of an all-time great in his position.
 
Unread 13-07-2008, 11:54 AM
Tumescent Throb
 
Default

Good work Serenity.

To counter it I'd start simply by saying that Zidane was often the stand-out player in any match he was part of, even if he didn't play that well. Surely that's a more accurate measure of greatness? How would Best's stats stack up? Or Maradona at Barcelona (or at Napoli minus the mafia!)

It's still clearly Platini>Zidane for me. I'd put Zico up there as well, even though I imagine his stats would leave him trailing by the wayside?
 
Unread 14-07-2008, 06:50 PM
Serenity Now
 
Default

Just for Throb, here are the numbers for Best at United:
Quote:
Pre Best (5 seasons) [1]:

League position: 10.00
Points per game: 1.44
Goals per game: 2.00
Major trophies 0.20

Best era (8 seasons):

League position: 5.38
Points per game: 1.64
Goals per game 1.82
Major trophies 0.38

Post Best (5 seasons) [2]:

League position: 11.60
Points per game: 1.40
Goals per game: 1.37
Major trophies: 0.20

[1] Excluding his first season at the club, where he only features in 17 of 42 matches.

[2] I am including his final two seasons at the club, where he only featured in 31 of 84 league matches, and excluding our season in the second division.
So we see a significant improvement in average league position, points per game and trophies won relative to the seasons before and after Best's time at United. We also see a marked drop in goals per game after Best's departure. And if we weight the trophies - so that a European Cup is worth more than a league title, which in turn is worth more than an FA Cup, for example - then these numbers look even more impressive.

Then, of course, there is the huge quantity of goals that Best scored for the club. An average of 0.38 per league appearance, to be exact. This is some six times higher than Roberto Donadoni at Milan (), and around twice as high as Zidane's goal rate at Madrid and Juve.
 
Unread 14-07-2008, 06:54 PM
marlo stansfield
 
Thumbs up

Quote:
Originally Posted by Serenity Now
Just for Throb, here are the numbers for Best at United:So we see a significant improvement in average league position, points per game and trophies won relative to the seasons before and after Best's time at United. We also see a marked drop in goals per game after Best's departure. And if we weight the trophies - so that a European Cup is worth more than a league title, which in turn is worth more than an FA Cup, for example - then these numbers look even more impressive.

Then, of course, there is the huge quantity of goals that Best scored for the club. An average of 0.38 per league appearance, to be exact. This is some six times higher than Roberto Donadoni at Milan (), and around twice as high as Zidane's goal rate at Madrid and Juve.
serenity wins by murder.
 
Unread 14-07-2008, 07:17 PM
Tumescent Throb
 
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Serenity Now
Just for Throb, here are the numbers for Best at United:So we see a significant improvement in average league position, points per game and trophies won relative to the seasons before and after Best's time at United. We also see a marked drop in goals per game after Best's departure. And if we weight the trophies - so that a European Cup is worth more than a league title, which in turn is worth more than an FA Cup, for example - then these numbers look even more impressive.

Then, of course, there is the huge quantity of goals that Best scored for the club. An average of 0.38 per league appearance, to be exact. This is some six times higher than Roberto Donadoni at Milan (), and around twice as high as Zidane's goal rate at Madrid and Juve.
Excellent work as ever.

Naturally, these stats alone cannot portray the reality of the situation at United in the 5 years previous to Best's arrival on the scene.

Do Donadoni's now please
 
Unread 14-07-2008, 07:37 PM
Fountz
 
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tumescent Throb
Good work Serenity.

To counter it I'd start simply by saying that Zidane was often the stand-out player in any match he was part of, even if he didn't play that well. Surely that's a more accurate measure of greatness? How would Best's stats stack up? Or Maradona at Barcelona (or at Napoli minus the mafia!)
Totally agree with that !

Quote:
Originally Posted by TT
It's still clearly Platini>Zidane for me. I'd put Zico up there as well, even though I imagine his stats would leave him trailing by the wayside?
Not for me..

Still Zidane over Platini.
 
Unread 14-07-2008, 07:40 PM
KingDipsyPirate
 
Default

Zidane for me, the guy was just a genious. As for Platani, I never got to see him play.
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