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Old 03-06-2010, 12:51 PM
ScarFace
 
Default Re: Red Knights 'to drop 1bn Man Utd bid'

1bil
 
Old 03-06-2010, 04:05 PM
redloner
 
Default Re: Red Knights 'to drop 1bn Man Utd bid'

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tumescent Throb
just out of interest, and ignoring history and future, what value would you place on United atm redloner?
Difficult one, because normal business rules, like PE ratio and multiple of profits goes out the window.

They overpaid by about 60p per share back in 2005. United was fair value then at nearer 625m. Given the increases in income since then, you'd probably get a decent stab at 900m to 1 billion, around 10 or 11 times EBITDA.

The problem is, the Glazers put so little in, their "equity" doesn't look like very much. 900m less the bond debt, less the PIK debt would leave them with just 170m or about 100m less than what they "invested."

Forbes valued it at 1.2 billion not so long ago, but again their formula is more esoteric than scientific. Listening to the recent press coverage, the "Knights" have been talking 1 billion and the Glazers' mention of 1.5 billion offers suggests both parties would probably meet in the middle around the Forbes figure.

J P Morgan see United's income dropping 15m a year in the near future, so we'll have to see how things play out. If we see the EBITDA drop below 80m, I think the Glazers will have real problems finding anyone willing to pay over 900m. That will also impact on the need for a refinance of the whole 1.1 billion debt in 2017, unless they strip 70m out of United now and another 25m a year just to keep the PIK debt at 150m. Then they will need to refinance just (JUST?) 650m on a value of 900m.
 
Old 03-06-2010, 11:19 PM
Tumescent Throb
 
Default Re: Red Knights 'to drop 1bn Man Utd bid'

gross, even crass undervaluation imo. as you say, normal business rules are irrelevant. what is far more relevant is the recent sponsorship activity and the potential to raise revenues as the expansion of the PL brand continues globally at apace, with, again potentially, web media in particular set to explode

totally pointless speculating what may or may not happen by, or in, 2017 as well, as I think we may have discussed previously. such speculation is about as relevant as factoring the bond issue into pre 2010 figures, or tipexing in the signing of Henrik Laarson into pre January 2007 transfer window speculation

hard to countenance an idea that these so-called knights would place such a low value on a club they supposedly love in an attempt to get it on the cheap.

Last edited by Tumescent Throb; 03-06-2010 at 11:22 PM.
 
Old 05-06-2010, 10:08 AM
redloner
 
Default Re: Red Knights 'to drop 1bn Man Utd bid'

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tumescent Throb
gross, even crass undervaluation imo. as you say, normal business rules are irrelevant. what is far more relevant is the recent sponsorship activity and the potential to raise revenues as the expansion of the PL brand continues globally at apace, with, again potentially, web media in particular set to explode

totally pointless speculating what may or may not happen by, or in, 2017 as well, as I think we may have discussed previously. such speculation is about as relevant as factoring the bond issue into pre 2010 figures, or tipexing in the signing of Henrik Laarson into pre January 2007 transfer window speculation

hard to countenance an idea that these so-called knights would place such a low value on a club they supposedly love in an attempt to get it on the cheap.
So you can take into account the possibility of increased revenue in the future, but omit reference to the reality of debt maturity?

That's a bit odd if you don't mind me saying so.

In addition, why would any potential buyer publicly seek to inflate the value of a purchase, or a seller look to undermine their position leaving them open to receive less?

Regardless of the value, I believe the debt position will determine the cost of buying United as the Glazers will want their original investment plus "X." The difficulty is estimating "X."
 
Old 05-06-2010, 02:48 PM
Tumescent Throb
 
Default Re: Red Knights 'to drop 1bn Man Utd bid'

i think you can take increased revenue in the future as a given tbh, although it would be interesting to see what might happen should BSkyB have captured the tv football market completely at some point.

the point about speculating on debt maturity is that you can only react. no-one had factored in a bond issue into their debt maturity speculation at any point in the 5 years leading up to it being issued. nobody, certainly not outside the loop anyway, knew it was going to happen. or if they did, then they chose not to mention it.

the whole thing is a dynamic that cannot be pinned down. forecasting to 2017is pretty pointless imo.


I agree of course re inflating a value/undermining of a position, and you may well be right about the potential exit strategy. however, you also need to factor in how necessary or otherwise the owner's need is for an exit strategy, and that i'm afraid is not known, regardless of the recent media campaign.
 
Old 07-06-2010, 01:17 PM
Svens robotic nob
 
Default Re: Red Knights 'to drop 1bn Man Utd bid'

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tumescent Throb
i think you can take increased revenue in the future as a given tbh, although it would be interesting to see what might happen should BSkyB have captured the tv football market completely at some point.

the point about speculating on debt maturity is that you can only react. no-one had factored in a bond issue into their debt maturity speculation at any point in the 5 years leading up to it being issued. nobody, certainly not outside the loop anyway, knew it was going to happen. or if they did, then they chose not to mention it.

the whole thing is a dynamic that cannot be pinned down. forecasting to 2017is pretty pointless imo.


I agree of course re inflating a value/undermining of a position, and you may well be right about the potential exit strategy. however, you also need to factor in how necessary or otherwise the owner's need is for an exit strategy, and that i'm afraid is not known, regardless of the recent media campaign.
You really are a Class A c**k.

If you do not work for a c*** family PR firm I would be astonished.

How can you possibly be against a buy-out to get shut of those yank twats?

You must either work for the club, work on behalf of the c*** family, or be absolutely deluded.

There is no "worse case scenario".
 
Old 07-06-2010, 03:00 PM
Tumescent Throb
 
Default Re: Red Knights 'to drop 1bn Man Utd bid'

Quote:
Originally Posted by Svens robotic nob
You really are a Class A c**k.

If you do not work for a c*** family PR firm I would be astonished.

How can you possibly be against a buy-out to get shut of those yank twats?

You must either work for the club, work on behalf of the c*** family, or be absolutely deluded.

There is no "worse case scenario".
trust me, the feeling is entirely mutual

won't bother responding to you blather bit by bit

suffice it to say that you're making stuff up, almost certainly because you're a retard

when did i ever say that i'm against a buy out?
 
Old 07-06-2010, 03:14 PM
borsuk
 
Default Re: Red Knights 'to drop 1bn Man Utd bid'

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tumescent Throb
the point about speculating on debt maturity is that you can only react. no-one had factored in a bond issue into their debt maturity speculation at any point in the 5 years leading up to it being issued. nobody, certainly not outside the loop anyway, knew it was going to happen. or if they did, then they chose not to mention it.

the whole thing is a dynamic that cannot be pinned down. forecasting to 2017is pretty pointless imo
the bond issue was a reaction to a situation that had been pretty accurately forecast. the nature of the glazers' reaction to any given situation might or might not be unexpected but the situations and the financial pressures which they will face are not. forecasting is vital for anybody keen to see the backs of glazers, whether through media campaigns, financial pressure (boycotts etc) or buy-outs.
 
Old 07-06-2010, 03:46 PM
Tumescent Throb
 
Default Re: Red Knights 'to drop 1bn Man Utd bid'

the bond issue was a very obvious mechanism, yet it was not part of the forecasts.

bearing in mind the bond issue and the collapse of lehman, forecasting to 2017 remains pointless in terms of the value of United, and increasingly so. i agree, in terms of PR campaigns etc it has its place.
 
Old 26-08-2010, 04:46 AM
waynes ear's
 
Default Re: Red Knights 'to drop 1bn Man Utd bid'

Quote:
Originally Posted by vinhseo125
Galzer is stupid . They 're killing MU !!! VitoryMotorCars
f*** off c**ksmoker
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